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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al Riyadh 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon beat Al Riyadh 3-2 at Al Taawoun Club Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.35 xG and Al Riyadh 1.22 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against Al Riyadh attack 0.83 / defence 1.00, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 40% | Draw 27% | Al Riyadh 34%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 36%, Al Riyadh 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights