Al Taawon 2-0 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Taawon host Al-Qadisiyah FC at Al Taawon Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taawon at Al Taawon Arena this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Taawon at 1.90 PPG versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al Taawon have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 45% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 40% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.89 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.509 / defence 1.131 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.141 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.456. Al Taawon carry an above-average attack strength of 1.509 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Al Taawon games / 40 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 39% | Draw 22% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.56 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.56. The draw (22%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 22% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 39% and away win at 39% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 50% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 39% | Draw 22% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Al Taawon 1.89 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.509 / def 1.131 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.141 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Draw (22%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Al Taawon Arena.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al Taawon 2 - 0 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 39% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 39% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al Taawon 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Taawon's attacking strength (1.51x league average) is weighed against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.7%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
39%
2.56
22%
4.47
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.77
1.88
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.63
Clean Sheet
15%
6.55
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
6%
16.73
6%
17.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.88 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 17W 9D 14L from 40 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Qadisiyah FC, meanwhile, have gone 25W 7D 8L across 40 games — 2.05 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Taawon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 9W 5D 6L from 20 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record stands at 10W 4D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.60 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Early Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 17W 9D 14L in their last 40 games (1.50 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 25W 7D 8L in their last 40 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.60 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2025, when Al Taawon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Taawon
1
Draws
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 2, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 50%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Al Taawon) and 50% (Al-Qadisiyah FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Al Taawon's recent games and 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Qadisiyah FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-0 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.89 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.88 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.51 / defence 1.13 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.85, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 39% | Draw 22% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 39%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 40%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Al Taawon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.