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Shock result as Al-Qadisiyah FC defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Taawon 0-1 at Al Taawoun Club Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.51 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Taawon fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.96 / defence 1.06 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 35%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al-Qadisiyah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 30%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights