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Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al Taawon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al Taawon 0-5 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.50 xG and Al-Nassr 1.89 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.89 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Al-Nassr attack 1.34 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 31% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 47%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 32%, Al-Nassr 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights