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Shock result as Al Kholood defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood beat Al Taawon 1-2 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 2.15 xG and Al Kholood 1.37 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against Al Kholood attack 0.99 / defence 1.28, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 55% | Draw 21% | Al Kholood 24%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Al Kholood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 41%, Al Kholood 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Al Kholood's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Al Kholood winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Kholood (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights