Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Taawon face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC meet at Al Taawon Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taawon have posted 1W 4D 5L at Al Taawon Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.90 PPG clear of Al Taawon in recent Pro League fixtures (2.30 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Al-Ittihad FC, who have claimed 5 wins from 10 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 4 draws.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Ittihad FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 57% versus Al-Ittihad FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 50% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 0.76 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.586 / defence 0.941 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.212 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.432. Al Taawon's attack strength of 0.586 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.212 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Al Taawon games / 43 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 15% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad FC 56%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 6.67 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 40% | Al-Ittihad FC 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Friday 28 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 15% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad FC 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Al Taawon 0.76 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.586 / def 0.941 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.212 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Al-Ittihad FC xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 28 May 2027 at Al Taawon Arena.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 15% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 56% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (10 meetings): Al Taawon 1W | Draws 4 | Al-Ittihad FC 5W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Taawon's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.21x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 0-2 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
15%
6.73
29%
3.40
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.40
1.63
Al-Ittihad FC xG
6.73
15%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
3%
34.51
26%
3.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 14.9 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.63 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taawon come into this having played 44 games, going 15W 12D 17L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 1.77 PPG from 44 outings (23W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Taawon's home form reads 7W 8D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 1.55 points per game from 22 outings (9W 7D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taawon are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.70 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 15W 12D 17L in their last 44 games (1.30 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 23W 9D 12L in their last 44 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.32 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ittihad FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Taawon
4
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Al Taawon 0-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 50%, Al-Ittihad FC 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Al Taawon) and 59% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al Taawon have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Taawon's games and 73% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Al Taawon's recent games and 59% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.