Al Taawon 0-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Al-Fateh travel to Al Taawon Arena to take on Al Taawon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 September 2026, 15:55 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taawon's home record at Al Taawon Arena: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Taawon 0.90 PPG, Al-Fateh 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Taawon register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Fateh in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Al Taawon hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Al-Fateh, with 2 draws in between.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 3–2 with Al Taawon winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Taawon and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 63% and Al-Fateh 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 53% | Al-Fateh 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.10 xG and Al-Fateh 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.708 / defence 0.817 | Al-Fateh attack 0.754 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.362. Al Taawon's attack strength of 0.708 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Al Taawon games / 38 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 39% | Draw 35% | Al-Fateh 26%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | Al-Fateh 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. This conflicts with form data: Al Taawon 70% | Al-Fateh 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 15:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 39% | Draw 35% | Al-Fateh 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Al Taawon 1.10 / Al-Fateh 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.708 / def 0.817 | Al-Fateh attack 0.754 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Al-Fateh xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 15:55 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Al Taawon Arena.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Al Taawon 0 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 39% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
Record (9 meetings): Al Taawon 5W | Draws 2 | Al-Fateh 2W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (0.71) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
39%
2.56
35%
2.83
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
1.94
0.84
Al-Fateh xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
9%
11.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.84 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 15W 10D 13L from 38 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 17L across 38 games — 1.03 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 7W 7D 5L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 2W 7D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.11 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 9W 12D 17L in their last 38 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.47 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2025, when Al Taawon won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
3
Draws
2
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Al-Fateh have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Al Taawon 0-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 58%, Al-Fateh 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Al Taawon) and 37% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al Taawon's games and 58% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Al Taawon's recent games and 37% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Taawon's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 5, as Al Taawon and Al-Fateh drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.10 xG and Al-Fateh 0.84 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Fateh landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.71 / defence 0.82 against Al-Fateh attack 0.75 / defence 1.09, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 39% | Draw 35% | Al-Fateh 26%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 53%, Al-Fateh 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.