Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Al Taawon take on Al-Ettifaq.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq meet at Al Taawon Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Al Taawon (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taawon's home record at Al Taawon Arena: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Ettifaq arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Al Taawon 5W, Al-Ettifaq 3W, 2D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 60% versus Al-Ettifaq 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 50% | Al-Ettifaq 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 0.67 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.632 / defence 0.755 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.993 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.272. Al Taawon's attack strength of 0.632 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al Taawon's defence rating of 0.755 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Al Taawon games / 40 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 22% | Draw 40% | Al-Ettifaq 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 4.55 | Draw 2.50 | Al-Ettifaq 2.63. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.62. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.62 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Al Taawon's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
Al Taawon dominate the H2H record, yet Al-Ettifaq are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 22% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 22% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 60% | Al-Ettifaq 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 22% | Draw 40% | Al-Ettifaq 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 33% | xG Al Taawon 0.67 / Al-Ettifaq 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.632 / def 0.755 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.993 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Al-Ettifaq xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Al Taawon Arena.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 22% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 38% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (10 meetings): Al Taawon 5W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 3W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Taawon's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.67. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.99x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.2%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
22%
4.60
40%
2.48
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
1.62
0.95
Al-Ettifaq xG
4.60
22%
Home win
2.48
40%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
8%
11.94
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.8 | 18.8 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.4%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.95 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 1.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 15W 11D 14L from 40 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 17W 9D 14L across 40 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Al Taawon against 1.50 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 7W 8D 4L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 9W 2D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taawon are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.48 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 15W 11D 14L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 9D 14L in their last 40 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.53 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-4 on 5 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
2
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 58%, Al-Ettifaq 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Al Taawon) and 53% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 47% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Al Taawon's recent games and 53% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.