Al Taawon 1-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Al Taawon (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's home record at King Abdullah Sports City: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al-Ettifaq arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Al Taawon 4W, Al-Ettifaq 3W, 2D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 58% versus Al-Ettifaq 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 51% | Al-Ettifaq 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 0.61 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.588 / defence 0.898 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.094 / defence 0.708. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.497. Al Taawon's attack strength of 0.588 is below the league average — the 0.61 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.708 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Al Taawon games / 45 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 13% | Draw 31% | Al-Ettifaq 56%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 7.69 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Ettifaq 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (56%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 40% | Al-Ettifaq 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 13% | Draw 31% | Al-Ettifaq 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 37% | xG Al Taawon 0.61 / Al-Ettifaq 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.588 / def 0.898 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.094 / def 0.708 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.497 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.61
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Al-Ettifaq xG
37%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Taawon 1 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 13% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 56% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (9 meetings): Al Taawon 4W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 3W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Taawon's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.61. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (1.09x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 16.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-2 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
13%
7.45
31%
3.27
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.4%
Away win
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.61
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.09
1.47
Al-Ettifaq xG
7.45
13%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
54%
1.85
Win to Nil
3%
32.44
30%
3.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 18.3 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 0.61 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.47 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 15W 12D 18L from 45 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 15L across 45 games — 1.51 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Al Taawon against 1.51 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 7W 8D 7L from 22 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 11W 3D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taawon are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.51 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 15W 12D 18L in their last 45 games (1.27 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 19W 11D 15L in their last 45 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.32 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-4 on 5 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Taawon
3
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 4, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Al Taawon 1-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 50%, Al-Ettifaq 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Al Taawon) and 54% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 32%; Al Taawon have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 46% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Al Taawon's recent games and 54% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 0.61 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.47 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.59 / defence 0.90 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.09 / defence 0.71, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 13% | Draw 31% | Al-Ettifaq 56%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 51%, Al-Ettifaq 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.27 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.