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Dominant Al Taawon run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Ettifaq.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon beat Al-Ettifaq 4-1 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.24 xG and Al-Ettifaq 2.00 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.87 / defence 1.27 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 23% | Draw 22% | Al-Ettifaq 55%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Al Taawon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 36%, Al-Ettifaq 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.33 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights