Al Taawon 3-1 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al Baten meet at Al Taawon Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 31 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Taawon at Al Taawon Club Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Baten (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al Baten's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Al Baten in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al Taawon, 1 for Al Baten and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with Al Taawon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Al Baten — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 70% versus Al Baten 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 52% | Al Baten 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.75 xG and Al Baten 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.996 / defence 0.990 | Al Baten attack 0.753 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.309. Al Baten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Al Taawon games / 59 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 55% | Draw 24% | Al Baten 21%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Al Baten 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 80% | Al Baten 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Al Taawon Club Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 55% | Draw 24% | Al Baten 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Taawon 1.75 / Al Baten 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.996 / def 0.990 | Al Baten attack 0.753 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Al Baten xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Baten kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Baten kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 31 May 2023 at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Baten?
Al Taawon 3 - 1 Al Baten.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Baten part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 55% chance of winning, Al Baten a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Baten?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taawon 2W | Draws 0 | Al Baten 1W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Baten in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al Baten (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 1.00x the league average against Al Baten's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Baten's attack (0.75x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
55%
1.80
24%
4.18
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.73
0.98
Al Baten xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
4%
27.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.98 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Baten?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 22W 20D 17L from 59 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Al Baten, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 32L across 59 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Baten heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 10W 10D 9L from 29 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Baten's away record stands at 2W 6D 21L across 29 trips, a 0.41 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Baten's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taawon are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.97 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Current Season
Al Baten
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 22W 20D 17L in their last 59 games (1.46 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 13W 14D 32L in their last 59 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Baten away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.38 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Al Taawon have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Baten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al Taawon
0
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 3, Al Baten have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2023, when Al Taawon 3-1 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al Baten?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 69%, Al Baten 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al Taawon) and 48% (Al Baten).
On the defensive side: Al Baten in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Baten?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Al Taawon's games and 41% of Al Baten's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al Taawon's recent games and 48% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al Baten tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Baten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al Baten 3-1 at Al Taawon Club Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.75 xG and Al Baten 0.98 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Al Baten attack 0.75 / defence 1.27, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 55% | Draw 24% | Al Baten 21%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 52%, Al Baten 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Al Baten's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm. Al Baten (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.