Al Taawon 1-0 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al Baten meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 12 May 2022 at 17:20 UTC.
Current Form
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Baten (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Baten's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al Taawon, 1 for Al Baten and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 2–3 with Al Baten winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al Baten — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 77% versus Al Baten 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 62% | Al Baten 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.36 xG and Al Baten 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.834 / defence 1.445 | Al Baten attack 0.692 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.226. Al Baten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Al Taawon games / 26 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 40% | Draw 26% | Al Baten 34%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Al Baten 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 60% | Al Baten 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 12 May 2022, 17:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 40% | Draw 26% | Al Baten 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Taawon 1.36 / Al Baten 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.834 / def 1.445 | Al Baten attack 0.692 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al Baten xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Baten kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Baten kicked off at 17:20 on Thursday 12 May 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Baten?
Al Taawon 1 - 0 Al Baten.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Baten part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 40% chance of winning, Al Baten a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Baten?
Record (1 meetings): Al Taawon 0W | Draws 0 | Al Baten 1W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Baten in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Al Baten (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 0.83x the league average against Al Baten's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Baten's attack (0.69x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
40%
2.51
26%
3.78
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.58
1.23
Al Baten xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
9%
11.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.23 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 5W 11D 10L from 26 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Baten, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 12L across 26 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Al Taawon against 1.00 for Al Baten. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 3W 5D 4L from 12 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Baten's away record stands at 1W 3D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Baten's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taawon are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 1.00 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 5W 11D 10L in their last 26 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 6W 8D 12L in their last 26 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Baten away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.17 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Al Taawon have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Baten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al Taawon
0
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 3, Al Baten have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2023, when Al Taawon 3-1 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al Baten?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 67%, Al Baten 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Taawon) and 42% (Al Baten).
On the defensive side: Al Baten in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Baten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 42% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Taawon's recent games and 42% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al Baten tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al Baten 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al Baten 1-0 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.36 xG and Al Baten 1.23 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Baten landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.83 / defence 1.45 against Al Baten attack 0.69 / defence 1.33, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 40% | Draw 26% | Al Baten 34%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 62%, Al Baten 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Baten's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.00 PPG, Al Baten 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.