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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Shabab and Damac share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Shabab and Damac finished level at 1-1 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.97 xG and Damac 1.38 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Shabab fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 0.96 / defence 1.14 against Damac attack 0.83 / defence 1.34, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 51% | Draw 22% | Damac 27%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 64%, Damac 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Shabab's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Damac's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights