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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Al Taawon run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Al Shabab.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon beat Al Shabab 1-5 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.44 xG and Al Taawon 1.77 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Al Taawon outscored their 1.77 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.05 / defence 1.18 against Al Taawon attack 1.06 / defence 0.91, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 31% | Draw 23% | Al Taawon 45%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 54%, Al Taawon 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Shabab's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Al Taawon's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.46 PPG, Al Taawon 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights