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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Riyadh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Shabab beat Al Riyadh 3-1 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.73 xG and Al Riyadh 1.39 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 0.98 / defence 1.25 against Al Riyadh attack 0.80 / defence 1.20, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 45% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 31%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 55%, Al Riyadh 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Shabab's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights