Al Shabab 1-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Al Shabab welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to Al-Shabab Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 13 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Shabab haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al Shabab at Al-Shabab Club Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Qadisiyah FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Qadisiyah FC — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Shabab trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 62% and Al-Qadisiyah FC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 44% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.55 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.064 / defence 1.231 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.345 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — the away xG of 2.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Al Shabab games / 34 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 25% | Draw 21% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 54%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 4.00 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.85. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 2.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 70% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 13 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 25% | Draw 21% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 71% | xG Al Shabab 1.55 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.30 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.064 / def 1.231 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.345 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
2.30
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 13 August 2026 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al Shabab 1 - 3 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 25% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 54% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al Shabab (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.06x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 2.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
25%
3.95
21%
4.84
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.86
2.30
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
3.95
25%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.50
Clean Sheet
10%
9.98
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
3%
39.46
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Al Shabab and 2.30 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Shabab come into this having played 34 games, going 8W 11D 15L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. Al Shabab haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.26 PPG from 34 outings (23W 8D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. Al-Qadisiyah FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.23 PPG clear of Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Shabab's home form reads 6W 4D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 2.24 points per game from 17 outings (12W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.44 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 68%.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Pre-Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 8W 11D 15L in their last 34 games (1.03 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 23W 8D 3L in their last 34 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.29 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 2.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 13 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
1
Draws
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2026, when Al Shabab 1-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Shabab at 76%, Al-Qadisiyah FC at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Al Shabab and 76% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Al Shabab's games and 76% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al Shabab's matches and 76% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Shabab.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Shabab 1-3 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.55 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.30 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.06 / defence 1.23 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.34 / defence 0.92, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 25% | Draw 21% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 54%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 44%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.