🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Al Shabab's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Shabab and Al Okhdood finished level at 0-0 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 2.01 xG and Al Okhdood 0.92 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Shabab fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Al Okhdood landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.43 / defence 0.87 against Al Okhdood attack 0.80 / defence 0.98, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 63% | Draw 21% | Al Okhdood 17%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 56%, Al Okhdood 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Shabab's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights