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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al Shabab.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al Shabab 2-4 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.19 xG and Al-Nassr 2.85 xG, a combined 4.05. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Nassr outscored their 2.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.01 / defence 1.40 against Al-Nassr attack 1.45 / defence 0.78, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 13% | Draw 16% | Al-Nassr 71%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 55%, Al-Nassr 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Shabab's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights