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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al-Ittihad FC defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Shabab 2-3 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.82 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.33 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.28 / defence 0.77 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.90, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 49% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 28%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Al-Ittihad FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 58%, Al-Ittihad FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Shabab's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights