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Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al-Hazm 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Hazm 1-0 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.70 xG and Al-Hazm 1.48 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Hazm landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.09 / defence 1.17 against Al-Hazm attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 34%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 100%, Al-Hazm 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hazm arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Al Shabab winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Shabab conceded 0 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.