Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Shabab and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Al Shabab and Al-Fateh drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.70 xG and Al-Fateh 0.89 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fateh outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.05 / defence 0.98 against Al-Fateh attack 0.72 / defence 1.18, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 56% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 20%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 46%, Al-Fateh 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Shabab's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.43 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights