Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ettifaq (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Shabab face Al-Ettifaq.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Shabab Club Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 20 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab's home record at Al-Shabab Club Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al Shabab are significantly better at Al-Shabab Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ettifaq's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Al-Ettifaq hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Al-Ettifaq have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 62% versus Al-Ettifaq 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 45% | Al-Ettifaq 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.13 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.069 / defence 1.363 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.980 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Al Shabab games / 40 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 22% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 49%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Ettifaq 2.04. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 80% | Al-Ettifaq 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 22% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Shabab 1.13 / Al-Ettifaq 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.069 / def 1.363 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.980 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Al-Ettifaq xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 22% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (10 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 5 | Al-Ettifaq 4W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.07x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.98x) against Al Shabab's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
22%
4.45
29%
3.45
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.85
1.72
Al-Ettifaq xG
4.45
22%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
4%
24.79
16%
6.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.72 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Shabab come into this having played 40 games, going 8W 14D 18L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.45 PPG from 40 outings (16W 10D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Shabab's home form reads 6W 5D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.50 points per game from 20 outings (9W 3D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Shabab are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.50 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 8W 14D 18L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 10D 14L in their last 40 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.15 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 3-0 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
5
Draws
4
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 75%, Al-Ettifaq 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al Shabab) and 55% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al Shabab's games and 50% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Shabab's matches and 55% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.