Al Shabab 6-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Shabab host Al-Ahli Jeddah at King Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 30 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Fahd Stadium, Al Shabab have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Shabab register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Shabab, 3 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 2–5 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (44 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (44 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 61% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 48% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.69 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.080 / defence 1.052 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.157 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.502. Data: 44 Al Shabab games / 44 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.52 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 70% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: King Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 70% | xG Al Shabab 1.69 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.080 / def 1.052 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.157 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.502 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 30 October 2026 at King Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Shabab 6 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 34% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (8 meetings): Al Shabab 2W | Draws 3 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
34%
2.91
25%
3.93
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.52
1.83
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
16%
6.23
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
6%
18.11
7%
13.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.83 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 10W 16D 18L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 32W 6D 6L from 44 games, 2.32 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 1.27 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Shabab.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 1.22 PPG from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 14W 3D 6L from 23 away games — 1.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.23 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 10W 16D 18L in their last 44 games (1.05 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 32W 6D 6L in their last 44 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.22 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2026, when Al Shabab won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Al Shabab
3
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 9 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 3, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2026, when Al Shabab 6-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 70%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al Shabab) and 48% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 39% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Al Shabab's recent games and 48% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Shabab run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 6-1 at King Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.69 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.83 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 4.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.16 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al Shabab win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 48%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (44 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (44 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Al Shabab winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.