Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 38%, yet in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Shabab host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 30 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Al Shabab have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al Shabab are significantly better at Al-Shabab Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Shabab register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Shabab, 3 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 2–5 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 62% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 45% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.74 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.070 / defence 1.371 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.964 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.272. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Al Shabab's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Al Shabab games / 40 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 38% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 80% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 38% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 69% | xG Al Shabab 1.74 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.070 / def 1.371 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.964 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 30 October 2026 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 38% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (8 meetings): Al Shabab 2W | Draws 3 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
38%
2.65
27%
3.71
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.42
1.68
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
7%
14.26
6%
16.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.68 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 8W 14D 18L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 28W 6D 6L from 40 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 1.30 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Shabab.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (6W 5D 9L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 12W 2D 6L from 20 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.10 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 8W 14D 18L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 28W 6D 6L in their last 40 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.15 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Feb 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Shabab
3
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al Shabab 2-5 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 75%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al Shabab) and 45% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al Shabab's games and 40% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Al Shabab's recent games and 45% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.