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Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ahli Jeddah.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Shabab beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.58 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.26 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.23 / defence 0.79 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.14 / defence 0.84, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 45% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 56%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Shabab's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Al Shabab winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights