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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as NEOM defy the odds to beat Al Riyadh 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEOM beat Al Riyadh 2-3 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.39 xG and NEOM 1.13 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. NEOM outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.95 / defence 1.01 against NEOM attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 37/3 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 43% | Draw 27% | NEOM 31%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual NEOM win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 67%, NEOM 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

NEOM's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, NEOM arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al Riyadh scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. NEOM scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights