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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Riyadh and Damac share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Riyadh and Damac finished level at 1-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.74 xG and Damac 1.20 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Damac attack 0.81 / defence 1.26, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 49% | Draw 25% | Damac 26%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 56%, Damac 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Damac's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 1.10 PPG, Damac 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights