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Prediction vindicated as Al Riyadh edge out Al Wehda Club 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Riyadh beat Al Wehda Club 1-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.57 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.05 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Wehda Club landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.88 / defence 0.83 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.91 / defence 1.21, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 50% | Draw 25% | Al Wehda Club 25%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 55%, Al Wehda Club 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Wehda Club's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 1.18 PPG, Al Wehda Club 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Riyadh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights