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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Riyadh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon beat Al Riyadh 1-3 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 0.99 xG and Al Taawon 1.70 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Taawon outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.74 / defence 1.08 against Al Taawon attack 1.09 / defence 0.86, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 22% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 54%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 56%, Al Taawon 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Al Taawon's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights