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Shock result as Al Riyadh defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Riyadh beat Al Taawon 1-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.00 xG and Al Taawon 1.20 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taawon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.90 / defence 0.90 against Al Taawon attack 0.91 / defence 0.78, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 30% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 41%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al Riyadh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 55%, Al Taawon 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Taawon's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Al Riyadh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights