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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Raed cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Riyadh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Raed beat Al Riyadh 1-3 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.48 xG and Al-Raed 0.88 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Raed outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.82 / defence 0.78 against Al-Raed attack 0.85 / defence 1.19, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 51% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 23%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Al-Raed win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 54%, Al-Raed 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Raed's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 1.19 PPG, Al-Raed 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights