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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Orubah cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al Riyadh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Orubah beat Al Riyadh 2-4 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.49 xG and Al Orubah 0.68 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Al Orubah outscored their 0.68 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.75 / defence 0.82 against Al Orubah attack 0.60 / defence 1.34, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 56% | Draw 27% | Al Orubah 16%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Al Orubah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 52%, Al Orubah 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Al Orubah's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 1.21 PPG, Al Orubah 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Orubah win broke the near-deadlock. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Orubah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights