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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Riyadh edge out Al Okhdood 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Riyadh beat Al Okhdood 1-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.10 xG and Al Okhdood 1.02 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Okhdood landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.72 / defence 0.89 against Al Okhdood attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 37% | Draw 30% | Al Okhdood 33%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 53%, Al Okhdood 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 1.14 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Riyadh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights