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Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al Riyadh 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al Riyadh 0-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.09 xG and Al-Nassr 2.09 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Riyadh fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.76 / defence 1.10 against Al-Nassr attack 1.35 / defence 0.95, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 19% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 60%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 56%, Al-Nassr 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights