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Prediction vindicated as Al Riyadh edge out Al Najma 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Riyadh beat Al Najma 2-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.73 xG and Al Najma 1.29 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Al Najma attack 0.83 / defence 1.27, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 48% | Draw 24% | Al Najma 29%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 0%, Al Najma 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 0.00 PPG, Al Najma 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Riyadh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Riyadh scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al Najma conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights