🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Al Riyadh edge out Al Kholood 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Riyadh beat Al Kholood 1-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.58 xG and Al Kholood 1.51 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Kholood landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.94 / defence 1.14 against Al Kholood attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 40% | Draw 24% | Al Kholood 36%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 59%, Al Kholood 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Kholood's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 1.05 PPG, Al Kholood 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Riyadh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights