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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Riyadh and Al Khaleej Saihat share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Al Riyadh and Al Khaleej Saihat drew 2-2 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.07 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.08 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Riyadh beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Khaleej Saihat outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.80 / defence 0.86 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 35% | Draw 29% | Al Khaleej Saihat 36%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 53%, Al Khaleej Saihat 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 1.19 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights