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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC finished level at 1-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 0.98 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.40 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.75 / defence 1.14 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.41 / defence 0.86, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 13% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 68%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 58%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.58 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights