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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Hazm edge out Al Riyadh 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hazm beat Al Riyadh 1-2 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.07 xG and Al-Hazm 1.23 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.79 / defence 1.05 against Al-Hazm attack 0.81 / defence 0.92, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 30% | Draw 32% | Al-Hazm 38%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 50%, Al-Hazm 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Hazm's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 0.80 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hazm win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights