🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.27 xG and Al-Fayha 1.35 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.77 / defence 1.08 against Al-Fayha attack 0.84 / defence 1.10, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 35% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 39%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 56%, Al-Fayha 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 1.00 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights