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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Riyadh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al Riyadh 0-2 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.46 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.45 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Riyadh fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.90 / defence 0.99 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 36% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 35%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 56%, Al-Ettifaq 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 1.07 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights