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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Riyadh 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Riyadh 0-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.13 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.83 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Riyadh fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.78 / defence 1.16 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.11 / defence 0.94, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 23% | Draw 23% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 54%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 55%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights