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Damac cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Raed.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Damac beat Al-Raed 0-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.64 xG and Damac 1.37 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.96 / defence 1.02 against Damac attack 0.97 / defence 1.23, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 44% | Draw 24% | Damac 32%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Damac win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 55%, Damac 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Raed's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Damac's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.09 PPG, Damac 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Damac (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights