Al-Raed 1-2 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Riyadh at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Riyadh make the trip to Al Raid Club Stadium to face Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 16:35 UTC.
Form
Al-Raed (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Raed's home record at Al Raid Club Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Al Riyadh have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Riyadh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al Riyadh have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Al-Raed against 1.40 for Al Riyadh. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Raed lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Raed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al Riyadh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 51% versus Al Riyadh 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 51% | Al Riyadh 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.38 xG and Al Riyadh 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.838 / defence 0.981 | Al Riyadh attack 1.125 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.290. Data: 37 Al-Raed games / 37 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 36% | Draw 25% | Al Riyadh 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Al Riyadh 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Riyadh as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 40% | Al Riyadh 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Al Raid Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 16:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 36% | Draw 25% | Al Riyadh 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Raed 1.38 / Al Riyadh 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.838 / def 0.981 | Al Riyadh attack 1.125 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Al Riyadh xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 16:35 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Al Raid Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Raed 1 - 2 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Al Raid Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 36% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Riyadh?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Raed 1W | Draws 1 | Al Riyadh 0W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Al Riyadh (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Al Riyadh's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Al Riyadh's attack (1.12x) against Al-Raed's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
36%
2.74
25%
3.96
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.81
1.42
Al Riyadh xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
9%
11.40
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.42 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Al-Raed have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 10W 11D 16L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Riyadh's form line: 9W 12D 16L from 37 games, 1.05 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al Riyadh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Al-Raed against 1.05 for Al Riyadh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Raed have posted 1.06 PPG from 18 outings (5W 4D 9L).
On the road, Al Riyadh have gone 4W 5D 9L from 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Raed are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.05 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al Riyadh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 10W 11D 16L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 9W 12D 16L in their last 37 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.06 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Raed won 3-0 on 28 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
1
Draws
1
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Riyadh?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Al Riyadh have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2025, when Al Riyadh 1-3 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Riyadh?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 44%, Al Riyadh 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Al-Raed and 67% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed have failed to score in 39% of games; Al Riyadh in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Riyadh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Al-Raed's games and 67% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Raed's matches and 67% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Raed and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Riyadh edge out Al-Raed 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh beat Al-Raed 1-2 at Al Raid Club Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.38 xG and Al Riyadh 1.42 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Al Riyadh attack 1.12 / defence 1.20, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 36% | Draw 25% | Al Riyadh 38%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 51%, Al Riyadh 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.11 PPG, Al Riyadh 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Riyadh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.