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Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al-Raed 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al-Raed 1-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 0.93 xG and Al-Nassr 2.05 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.72 / defence 1.13 against Al-Nassr attack 1.31 / defence 0.88, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 16% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 63%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 55%, Al-Nassr 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Raed's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights