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Shock result as Al Kholood defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood beat Al-Raed 1-2 at Al Raid Club Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.82 xG and Al Kholood 1.51 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.81 / defence 1.35 against Al Kholood attack 0.78 / defence 1.47, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 45% | Draw 23% | Al Kholood 32%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Al Kholood win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 61%, Al Kholood 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Raed's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Al Kholood's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Kholood arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.64. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Kholood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights