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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Raed face Al-Ittihad FC.

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Match Analysis

Al-Raed host Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 15 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Raed — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Raed at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 home games — 0.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

Al-Ittihad FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Al-Raed's 1 victories.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2025, ended 1–4 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Raed 55% and Al-Ittihad FC 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 57% | Al-Ittihad FC 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.16 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.812 / defence 1.321 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.151 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.438. Data: 65 Al-Raed games / 65 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 19% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 61%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 5.26 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.16 / 2.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 50% | Al-Ittihad FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

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