Al-Raed 2-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Raed at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Raed and Al-Fateh meet at Al Raid Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 17:05 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Raed's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Al-Raed's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Al-Fateh (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Fateh's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Raed's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Al-Fateh edge it 4 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Apr 2024, ended Al-Raed 1–3 Al-Fateh — a Al-Fateh win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Raed 54% and Al-Fateh 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 54% | Al-Fateh 63%). Note also that Al-Fateh surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Al-Raed recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.49 xG and Al-Fateh 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.852 / defence 1.131 | Al-Fateh attack 0.740 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.339. Al-Fateh's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Raed's projected output up. Al-Fateh's attack rating of 0.740 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 41 games and Al-Fateh's last 41.

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 46% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.19 | Draw 3.87 | Al-Fateh 3.50. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights