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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac finished level at 1-1 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.07 xG and Damac 0.96 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.77 against Damac attack 0.84 / defence 1.21, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 61% | Draw 24% | Damac 15%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 51%, Damac 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Damac's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights