🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Damac travel to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium to take on Al-Qadisiyah FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 December 2025, 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Al-Qadisiyah FC are significantly better at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Damac have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Al-Qadisiyah FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Qadisiyah FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Damac in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 1 for Damac and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Damac winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Damac in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 49% versus Damac 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% | Damac 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.07 xG and Damac 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.145 / defence 0.766 | Damac attack 0.839 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.488. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Al-Qadisiyah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.766 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 43 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 61% | Draw 24% | Damac 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Damac 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights