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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Wehda Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al-Qadisiyah FC versus Al Wehda Club in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Thursday 15 May 2025 at 16:55 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 7W 2D 1L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al-Qadisiyah FC are significantly better at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Al Wehda Club's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Al Wehda Club's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W, Al Wehda Club 0W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2025, ended 3–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al-Qadisiyah FC half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Al Wehda Club half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 45% versus Al Wehda Club 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 45% | Al Wehda Club 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.43 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.050 / defence 0.759 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.867 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.427. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 31 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 65 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 48% | Draw 27% | Al Wehda Club 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Al Wehda Club 4.00. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Al Wehda Club 40% BTTS from recent games.

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