Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Qadisiyah FC face Al Shabab.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al Shabab to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 14 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Al-Qadisiyah FC have the edge — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 1 for Al Shabab and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2026, ended 3–1 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 66% and Al Shabab 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 68% | Al Shabab 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.74 xG and Al Shabab 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.393 / defence 1.110 | Al Shabab attack 0.794 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.357. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.393 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 41 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 47% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Al Shabab 4.35. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% | Al Shabab 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 14 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 47% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.74 / Al Shabab 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.393 / def 1.110 | Al Shabab attack 0.794 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Al Shabab xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Monday 14 December 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 47% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 3W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.39x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.40
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.94
1.20
Al Shabab xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
4%
24.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.20 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 28W 9D 4L from 41 games, a 2.27 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Shabab, meanwhile, have gone 8W 15D 18L across 41 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 1.32 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Shabab heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 12W 7D 1L from 20 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Shabab's away record stands at 2W 9D 9L across 20 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.41 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.22 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Al Shabab in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 28W 9D 4L in their last 41 games (2.27 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 8W 15D 18L in their last 41 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.15 PPG; Al Shabab away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 13 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, Al Shabab have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2026, when Al Shabab 1-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 60%, Al Shabab 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 30% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al Shabab in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 50% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 30% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.